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Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Bayesian probability

It's [Bayesian probability] an engine for evidence. It is fed a probabilistic description of the domain and, when new evidence arrives, the system just shuffles things around and gives you your revised belief in all the propositions, revised to reflect the new evidence.* 
I have offered a Christmas poem or other short writing to family, friends, and close-ish others for many years. This year I think it is my last, for the reason given above. To wit, mostly I get no acknowledgement or other response. I have a few faithful readers. I take that back. I have one, and she is a treasure--my cousin in Carson City, Nevada, and this year her dear partner along life's circuitous byways. And then sometimes, more often than I care to count, I get, "Huh?!" Or worse, "Why did you ask me to read your incoherent missive?"

Which this year has led to these two of six New Year's resolutions that seem probable.
  • Send no unsolicited writing anymore, ever, to anyone--to no one! except to my cousin and one or two other people.
  • Respond to--don't initiate--conversations, but once invited, help the conversation go somewhere, especially by raising questions, not by sharing my knowledge, opinions, or observations.
Here is this year's unsolicited offer/offending piece, called Exhibit One.


I have had a relationship with the Czech Republic. It has been off and on since 1994, although one of my earliest memories of Czechoslovakia as someplace fascinating and far, far away--I would never visit--was a hockey game played in the early 50s that I watched on our first TV set, black and white.

The relationship is back on, and I have returned to where it began for real for me in 1994, Prague. On, by the way, means I am here and not there (elsewhere) and enjoying it this time, having put some unpleasant learning experiences associated with Czechs and the developing country in my past.

Two of my delights are Christmas postcards, especially those of Josef Lada and vánoční koleda (Christmas carols), especially as sung by children's choirs. Although the Czech Republic, I have maintained, is a godless place, especially here in Bohemia, there is saving grace when viewing these postcards and listening to Czech koleda at least once a year.

In the past I have shared with family and friends both the postcards and the carols, but I think it was more for my pleasure than theirs. For the last several years, I have again carried around a batch of these postcards promising myself I would send them out this year in time for Christmas. I failed, again.

However, here is my excuse and a fulfillment of my promise to myself, realized this time of course in my own way. I have turned 71, and although I deny that aging is setting in and have stories for why I don't get done in a day what I used to be able to accomplish, I, like an annoying and insistent child, send at least the Christmas cards plus bonus, a bit of background for them and the artist ( http://praguemylove.blogspot.cz/2010/12/happy-birthday-josef-lada.html ).

Perhaps you will have a look and a read and find something? a bit of your own childhood perhaps, a remembrance of simpler, more innocent times? Wouldn't that be nice gift to yourself. Are these times gone forever? Not if you click on each image and put yourself inside for a moment to see, reflect, and try to decode what these Czechs, and we, are about other than hubris and hedonism, and not just at this time of year.

Oh, as for the music. I have not fundamentally changed about that either. I have no love of music except for Czech Christmas songs and American folk music. Kind of figures, doesn't it? But I won't inflict any of that on you this year--there is always next, we trust.

Exhibit Two. One person wrote me back asking why should she read my holiday message? She really did not have me or my message on her list of priorities and in her busy schedule, which she outlined for me. She objected to my appreciation for a part of the country-culture Czech. I had not expressed the same for Italy and Italians.

I'm sorry. She didn't read my Benano Blog carefully enough, for one. And for the record, each country-culture has its delights and downers; and gosh, my own country of birth has a culture today I can hardly recognize or accept, although there are still things to love about it. Two, how can I be responsible for interfering with her choices of what to attend to and what not?

However, just like the downsides of Italy and Italians, or the Czech Republic, or anywhere else, there is a brighter one. My now former correspondent has a point. Why should anyone read unsolicited material? from a friend? during the holidays? or at anytime? trying to share something about another art and a small corner in the world of music? (Thus the above listed, no longer proposed, resolution.)

Salvation is always loving support for one's efforts, efforts born of good intentions and feelings of affection for the health and well being of others. If this indeed shows through what one does, receiving back in like kind gives one the strength to carry on, regardless of the fool one makes of oneself from time to time.

This year I got several returns like that from the holiday message, and although in all probability based on evidence counted and weighed over the years, I will cease and desist the annual, no doubt selfish, ritual, I take heart and would like to return service with a delight that will be easy to field and redemptive.

A bitter-sweet Czech/Moravian love song, "Teče, voda, Teče," sung by one of the Petits chanteurs a la Croix de Bois. Not exactly Christmas music, but you'll get the idea, er feeling, and will fall in love too, just as with a closer look, I believe, at the Czech Christmas cards I promoted in my holiday message.

Careful. The song and singer might just break your heart, as in part the message of the lyrics will, but you don't need to know what is being said. You don't need words with art or music. One- and two-way conversations don't always need words.

I dare you not to be touched regardless of other worldly priorities/schedule. Take three minutes. It is my last unsolicited message, which is now a challenge, in all probability.
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https://www.edge.org/conversation/judea_pearl-engines-of-evidence